Nokia, Apple, Google is the ball starting to roll ?
There is an overall perception that 2008 is the year where mobile will take off as a platform widely open to innovation. Until now, the majority of those exposed to mobile application development have been stuck at the entry of so called operators walled garden, and/or are busy fixing fragmentation problems accross a wide variety of not so similar handset … Recent initiatives from Apple and Google (both newcomers in the mobile arena) suggest that what until recently was looking a distant future is about to happen. There will probably be resistances on the way towards “new mobile” (you may call it mobile 2.0), and to understand what may go wrong it helps to review what the much needed reorganization imply.
What are we heading for ?
In mobile 2.0, end users have in hand terminals which in addition to ubiquituous voice access deliver always on internet. Additionally the processing power of those devices allow them to be used with success for tasks that are nowadays in the realm of personal computer, and interfaces are available that allow efficient human/device interaction and to some extend (expect many unexpected development here) end user personal environment interaction (eg today mobile phone camera …).
Those new mobiles will probably be prefered to today personal computer, to host any applications which continuous availability is important for the end user , the endless list of such applications will have to be written in the years to come …
This may appear as a natural evolution of the current state of things, it is but there is an overall perception that something has to change in the mobile ecosystem to allow the full potential of those technologies to be realized.
Mobile 2.0 operators
The main question here is whether the mobile operators of today will want to transform themselves in the kind of operators that mobile 2.0 requires. So far the control of the network has also implied the control of the applications and services which are accessible from the end user terminal. Even the less paranoid mobile operator will not have any difficulty in perceiving the threat that a platform like the one drafted by Google (Android) constitutes for their established position. For example, what would be the impact on the revenues that operators derive from sms text messaging of an ubiquituous instant messaging client ?
We shall see how things will evolute, but chance are high that today mobile operators will not be exactly enthousiastic supporting “mobile 2.0 business models” which transfers a fair percentage of value to companies developing applications at the other end of the cloud. Mobile 2.0 take off imply an easier access to network and end user terminal than what is currently allowed, opening such doors currently depend upon operators good will. They need to be convinced that they have more to win than to loose in doing so…
Winning the hearth and mind of the developers
It is clearly perceived that innovations coming from applications developers will be key in developping the attractivness of new mobile platforms. The recent release of the iphone sdk is a significant step forward as it suggests two things :
- Native development are required to allow those new devices to deliver their full potential
- There need to be a clear path for application to be sold and delivered to end user. The iTune way will probably be duplicated …
What about Nokia
Tough Nokia currently appears as a follower, in our opinion they are capable to have a meaningfull impact on what is currently going on. Their marketing message does not appear to be as efficiently delivered as the one of Apple and Google, however Nokia has a few assets that suggest that the real Android may eventually arrive from the North of Europe. Their recent take over of Trolltech suggests that they have understood that mobile 2.0 is about quality applications which benefits from solid platform tools.
KerPass 
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